Yep, we know YBU is misspelled above, it's just a little Friday humor. Vegas oddsmakers opened betting on UCLA BYU at UCLA -7 and the betting has gone in UCLA's favor since then. We think it will be a much more wide-open win for us at home. Our prediction, as we said yesterday, is for a UCLA 31-10 win. We don't get why people are underestimating the impact an away game at an historic site like the Rose Bowl against a talented, highly ranked, experienced team for a young and inexperienced offense. We don't see BYU getting anywhere offensively. In fact, we see their offense giving up points and turnovers. We think there will be as high as a +3 turnover margin potential for us. We just don't see this being close.
The Vegas over/under runs from 46 to 47, so a little more scoring that we anticipate. One thing that might be driving higher scoring bets is the new rules regarding timing that have made games way too long - 4 hours. There are 15-20 more plays per team than usual giving both teams more opportunity to score obviously. Normally, we agree with oddsmakers on UCLA football odds, but not for the YBU game. It cracks us up saying that, YBU. Go Bruins!!!
Other Notes
- The AP has decided to allow ranking of the formerly Div 1-AA classified division football programs in their top 25 rankings. This was in response to the epic upset of Appalachian St. over Michigan last week. After this weekend, you might see App St. hit the top 25 if they take care of business against powerhouse Lenoir-Rhyne.
- Sophomore CB Alterraun Verner will get the start at CB against BYU tomorrow even if Rodney Va's ankle feels better, according to Brian Dohn, Daily News.
- No word yet from the NCAA on Brian Price's eligibility. Remember, Frank Price was adamant that they would hear from the NCAA this week. It's Friday morning and nothing. That is one ticked off father.
It's Friday and we restore our tradition of Vegas Line, the day before the game. This week various Vegas bookmakers have UCLA winning - 16.5 to -17.0. This jives with our earlier score prediction of UCLA winning 27-10. We don't make bets and our policy is to not link to betting sites, but the information we find is still useful. Vegas also if you recall has UCLA winning 9 games, which matches our prediction for the year. Tomorrow is about winning and winning solidly to set up the rest of the early season. We should be 5-0 when we hit the heart of our schedule this year. It all starts with Stanford at the Farm tomorrow. Go Bruins!!!
The Sports Book Review, a site that reviews all sports books, has got a none-to-kind review of UCLA’s prospects for the season. As we mentioned last week, the Vegas line on the number of wins for UCLA this year is set at 9. The SBR follows all the sports books and reports that the UCLA win bet, now standing at an average of Under 9, is a good one. SBR:
UCLA Bruins: Under 9 (-125)
There are mixed views about how the Bruins will perform in 2007. Some will point to UCLA’s stunning 13-9 win over rival USC (as a 10½-point underdog, no less) as proof of the program’s ascension up the Pacific-10 ladder. But then the Bruins were destroyed 44-27 by the aforementioned Seminoles in the Emerald Bowl. The truth for this season should lie somewhere in between.
The Bruins have a brutal schedule: non-conference games against Notre Dame, Utah and BYU, and visits to USC, Arizona and Oregon State. Squeezing even eight wins out of that lemon would have to be considered a major accomplishment.
We obviously don’t agree with the “brutal schedule” comment. As you may recall, UCLA beat the heck out of Utah last year with the same team we have this year, and should have beaten Notre Dame away with the same team. ND lost all its key players as well. And BYU lost something like 25 seniors, not all of whom were starters, but most of their key players on both sides of the ball. Also, UCLA plays only 2 road games against teams that had above .500 records (USC, Oregon State), both of whom we beat with the same team we have this year.  Nevertheless, here you have a summary of sports books and their assessment of Karl Dorrell’s chances of doing something with this team is embarrassing.
We have been saying for almost a year now that the worst case scenario for UCLA football in 2007 would be to end up with 9 wins. DD readers know why. 9 wins is not enough to have NFL owners calling Dorrell (unless by some miracle the 3 losses are close and one of the wins is against SuC at the Coliseum in spectacular fashion), and 9 wins is not enough to get Dorrell fired. We haven’t come out with our PREDICTION for the season yet - look for that later - but DD readers know what part of our prediction is already … We think we will be a 9 win team!! Torture!!
And it looks like Vegas oddsmakers agree with us. What do you think is the current line on UCLA wins this year??? … wait for it … 9 wins (our policy is to not link to betting sites, so you are going to have to trust us on this)!! If that happens we are going to have to check into rehab. More on this later.
Oddsmakers have come out with their futures bets on winning the BCS championship. Some of you might remember our weekly feature on Vegas odds before each game. We’re not interested in having you bet … but its good info. Below is the current Vegas line on winning the BCS championship game (as is our policy, we will not provide links to Vegas bookmakers - you’re gonna have to trust us on this one). You will note that we are ranked in a tie for 23rd with Tennessee, Texas A&M and the Field (any other team) at 50-1, behind Cal (45-1) and SuC (5-2) among others. Here are the odds by school:
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Vegas oddsmakers opened up the line on the Emerald Bowl with UCLA -5. The betting has narrowed the spread a little to -3.5 to -4.0 depending on the service. It seems that nearly every expert has UCLA winning this game on the strength of the win against USC. Florida State could have won against Florida in its last game were it not for a toe out of bounds on a return but only College Football News has FSU beating us. We haven’t seen much good insight from CFN to believe their analysis, after all they have crowned Dorrell Coach of the Year in the Pac-10 when their own pre-season analysis would say he had an ok year. CFN says FSU will move the ball against our much improved defense. We shall see. So far, the money is following the buzz of UCLA and DeWayne Walker’s defense.
Speaking of Vegas, read more
We are in Vegas checking out the national championship in speed pool. Yeah, they have a national championship in just about everything. We’re here for a big party not for the speed pool, and to bet on the games … and Vegas is pretty much deserted except for some Oregon fans. More signs of the apocalypse: it snowed when we got here. WTF?? It’s frigging snowing in Vegas??
On to the Emerald Bowl,. We will be posting more on the bowl game later. We will have a Q&A with an FSU blogger and break down the game. Stay tuned …
The oddsmakers have Southern Cal blowing us out by two touchdowns at our own home. The line is Southern Cal by 13 to 14 points depending on the service. Not exactly a vote of confidence. Remember, not one major poll had us picked to finish higher than 4th in the Pac-10 at the beginning of the season, and those predictions turned out to be true. Our own analysis of the matchup, the key stats, would confirm the 2 touchdown spread. Nestor at BruinsNation lays out the reasoning for why this year we will win.Â
In other news, read more
Looks like the oddsmakers are giving ASU the home field advantage in this game. Depending on the service, the odds are ASU by 4.0 to 5.5. Big spread in the analysis of the outcome, but the verdict is the same. UCLA has beaten the spread at least twice this season, and this ASU team is more inconsistent and weak than OSU. Like the Beavers, the Sun Devils are up and down and they are due for a down day. Not a lot of points are expected, even though the last time these two teams met in Tempe it was a shootout, with UCLA losing 48-42.
Editors Note: Check back later today to find out where we will have people with the new Save Football tshirts in Westwood Saturday morning and at the Rose Bowl before the game. Sign the petition if you haven't already.
We will be short today. The oddsmakers think this game will be close and that OSU will run their winning streak to 5 games at the Rose Bowl. Depending on the service, OSU is expected to win by 1.5 to 2.5 points. Should be interesting.
