Stat Of The Week: Arizona State

On to this week's Stat of the Week.  Let's first review last week's Stat of the Week for the Arizona game.  Last week we said the key to winning the game was simply morale, as measured by keeping the game close at the half.  If we kept the game close at the half we felt that the team would pull out a win.  The key was regaining that confidence because we certainly have the talent, regardless of injuries, to beat lowly Arizona.  Arizona jumped out to a 2 touchdown lead by the half.  And sure enough, just like we said would happen, the team came out lifeless in the 2nd half, already beaten in their own minds.  Arizona increased its lead to 3 touchdowns in 2 minutes to start the 2nd half after our 3 and out and the game seemed over right there.

But then a funny thing happened. Dorrell finally put in Ossar Rasshan.  Cowan was knocked out so Dorrell's hand was forced, but we were going down fast with Cowan anyway (our top QB and SuC killer, right?!).  Ossar clearly lifted the spirit of the team and made a game of it.  As anyone could clearly see, it was morale that was the key to this team winning just like we said, and Ossar provided a boost. Unfortunately, we ran out of time or we might have won it, keeping in mind that Arizona put it on cruise control to burn the clock.  Nevertheless, we increase our predictions on Stat of the Week at 9 for 9.

As for this week, we think there will be a couple of stats to key on for us to win the game:  Turnovers and Special Teams play. We will get to the Stat of the Week with those in mind in a second.  First, we should point out that in nearly every single offensive and defensive category ASU ranks in the top 5 in the Pac-10 and mostly in the top 2.  UCLA, on the other hand, ranks 5th or worse in the conference in most of the same categories.  On paper, this seems like a big mismatch, with ASU running away with it. 

Although the ASU offense is getting the publicity, their defense is shutting down opponents.   In rushing defense they are #16 in the nation (102 per), passing efficiency defense #13 (102.43), total defense #21 (321 yards per), scoring defense #12 (17.78), sacks #47 (2.22 per).  Their only chink in the armor is passing defense #94 (256 per).  But in the pass happy Pac-10 that ranks them good for #2 behind SuC (173 per).  Ominous numbers for our anemic offense.  As for ASU's offense, they are surprisingly well balanced.  They rank #28 nationally in passing (269), rushing #50 (166), total offense #27 (435), scoring offense #24 (35.33), passing efficiency #8 (155.95), and turnover margin #25 (.67 per).  Strong numbers, but our defense should bring those numbers down. 

There are ways we can win.  It won't be with our offense as ASU will shut us down.  As we said earlier, Erickson will stack the box with his strong rush defense and make Ossar beat us with his arm, which stacks the deck in ASU's favor.  Our defense can get to Carpenter as ASU is near dead last in the country (#116) in allowing 4.11 sacks per game.  Despite that fact, Carpenter has an extremely high efficiency rating, meaning he still completes a high percentage of his passes, for many yards and TDs and with few interceptions (8 in 9 games).  That means ASU's offense is disciplined. We need to make them uncomfortable in order to win. We need to create turnovers, and hold on to the ball ourselves. 

Our Stat of the Week is +2 or more in the turnover column. We absolutely need this to win.  But that might not be enough.  We said that special teams play is also key.  Being that we need points and that our offense will be challenged against ASU's very good defense, we need our special teams to step up and give us +1 TD.   ASU's weakness is special teams, which are average and have not put any points on the board.  Net punting they rank #71 in the country at 34 yards per, placing them at #7 in the conference. Kickoff returns they are #76 at 20.82, good for #7 in the conference as well.  Kickoff return defense they are #47 in the country. We can win the field position game by getting great play from our special teams. That will make it harder for ASU to run their offense and create more opportunities for turnovers and even a TD from our special teams.  We need special teams to step up today.  So that is it. If we are not getting it done in those two categories today we will not win this game. There is a chance though that we get it done. Go Bruins!!

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