October 18, 2007
Stat Of The Week: Cal
We’ve done no analysis of the game this week. We are just not up to it … Dorrell has taken all the life out of UCLA football for us. Strangely, we feel that a win might be in the air, just like last year against SuC. But we will get to that in another post. Let’s get to the Stat of the Week. First, a review of last game’s Stat of the Week, which you may recall was time of possession … we are now 6 for 6 this year with our predictions.
In our Notre Dame Stat of the Week post, we said that the key to winning was holding onto the ball and keeping it more than Notre Dame. At the time, Notre Dame was near dead last in the country in time of possession, their offense AND defense were that bad. What happened?? We didn’t hold onto the ball number 1, turning over 7 times by going inexplicably with an air game using a 3rd string walk-on freshman QB with 0 passing experience, and number 2, Notre Dame did hold onto the ball. Charlie Weiss outcoached Dorrell in that Weiss planned an offensive game that wasn’t designed to gain many yards (140 total!) but also wouldn’t give up the ball. Weiss played a control game, which is exactly what we said was key to winning - time of possession - and Weiss won the game.
Incredibly, for the FIRST TIME this season Notre Dame held the ball MORE than their opponent!! Their time of possession surpassed ours by more than 4 minutes!! How can a team that gained only 140 yards on offense and that has one of the nations worst defenses hold the ball longer than us and win by 2 touchdowns??!!! Impossible … unless the opponent was one Karl Dorrell. All Karl had to do was run the ball, hold it, and get an easy win … that’s what we said. That was plainly evident in the game and easy to do. Instead, as we all know, Dorrell aired it out unnecessarily and unwisely and we turned it over. Charlie must have read our post and Karl … well … he must have been sleeping.
So this week our Stat of the Week, pay attention Karl, is rushing yards against. Again, we haven’t done any analysis really so this might be our most uninformed Stat entry. But here is what we do know: this game is going to be won by our defense or Cal’s offense. Cal’s defense and our offense are essentially a wash (although we might give a slight nod to Cal’s defense). Aside from penalties and turnovers, we think the key to this game is Cal establishing a running game (#26 in country, 196 per). Cal’s offense is very well balanced (#31, 434 per). They have probably the best receiving corps in the nation (passing O #49, 238 per) and a line that protects its QB very well (#18 in sacks allowed, #35 in tackles for loss allowed). Now, if walk-on freshman QB Kevin Riley starts he could have the jitters starting his first game away and that could lead to turnovers and poor efficiency. Aside from that, if we stop the run decently Cal will have to focus more on the passing game. This is where the game gets interesting. We don’t have the best passing defense (#77, 242 per), but if we stop the run with our rush D (#10, 81 per) it helps our passing D force Cal out of their game, out of their rhythm and comfort zone, and into mistakes and inefficiency. With Riley at QB at the Rose Bowl, that increases our chances of winning.
So, the key to winning this game is stopping the run. Keep an eye on that stat. If Cal has not gained 100 yards rushing through 3 quarters, then you will know we can steal a win!! Anything more than that we will most likely lose. If we keep them under 100 yards rushing for the game, we probably win. So DeWayne Walker and Karl Dorrell need to have a game plan with that in mind. Force Cal to go lopsided with their offense. Crush the run, and make them beat us in the air. If we start sending too many blitzes to affect their air game and get burned with some delays Tedford will take command of this game. Try to hit Riley early to rattle him, sure, but don’t get burned by the run doing it, focus on the run. If turnover margin for either side is +2 or more then this may not hold. Go Bruins!! Beat Kal!!
Other Notes:
- We have the nation’s #1 3rd down conversion defense (23.7%). Cal has the nation’s #23 3rd down conversion offense (45.7%). That should make for interesting 3rd downs when Cal has the ball. On the other side of the ball, we have the nation’s #89 3rd down coversions offense (35.4%) and Cal has the nation’s #48 3rd down conversion defense (38.5%). So pretty much a wash there as we said above.
- 4th down conversions tell a little different story, with UCLA showing less ability than on 3rd downs on both sides of the ball. We are converting 25% on offense (#111, near dead last) and our defense is stopping 50% (#55). Cal is converting 50% on offense (#48) and ties our defense by allowing 50% (tied for #55). Seems that we get outschemed on 4th downs … no surprise there.
- Cal is #6 in the country in turnover margin (+1.5 per), whereas we are mired at #97 at -1.0 per. Unless this is lopsided as we said, we don’t see this being too much of a benefit for Cal, especially with Riley at QB.
- Both teams get penalized quite a lot. Surprisingly, Cal comes in at #94 (7.67 per, 65 yards per) and we come in near the bottom at #104 (8.33, 64.5).
9 Comments on Stat Of The Week: Cal
October 18, 2007
BobTheBruin @ 7:23 pm:
Spot on for the stat of the week. If they force the pass for either QB, we can win this game.
dana @ 11:06 pm:
I think we have a real shot with Cal with their QB out. As we saw in that game against ND, anytime you need to rely on a freshman QB…
Lawrence @ 11:56 pm:
Hey Dana,
Growing up in SF, I’ve been following the Bruins and the Golden Bears forever; they’re the only teams I care about. Being an UCLA student (chose UCLA instead of UCB) and having to suffer with the rest of our Bruin nation as we watch this Dorrell Catastrophe dragggg on and on and on and on has been egregiously excruiating. The QB playing for CAL is Riley, and except for the final play in that game against OSU, he did REALLY well; he’s really poised and has a strong arm.
Bottom Line:
I think CAL will kill us this week.
BUT this will be one step closer to firing clueless Karl… right? It better be.
Everyone… Please take a look at the very parallel situation at NEBRASKA. Their A.D. gave Callahan a fat contract extension because he had ONE (1) good year. This was A.D. Pederson’s way of saying 1) he made the right choice in hiring Calahan and 2) he had blind faith in Calahan.
How did Nebraska respond to the A.D.’s stupidy? They fired his ass.
MESSAGE TO GUERRERO: Fire YOUR mistake-Dorrell or UCLA will fire YOUR ass and then hire a real A.D. who will then hire a really qualified coach.
Keep fighting Bruin fans!!!
October 19, 2007
Diego @ 1:52 am:
There’s no firing Dan Guererro. The issue at Nebraska is incredibly different. They ONLY care about football there. UCLA is the best school for all sports. Guerrero has continued that tradition in a brilliant. His resurection of the bball program was not small feat, mind you.
We have to realize that football isn’t primary at UCLA. There’s a reason why traditional bball schools don’t have competitive football programs. I’ve always felt, however, that we’re the glaring exception. UCLA is the only school to historically, traditionally place competitive, ranked, championship type of teams in both football and bball. Florida has it going right now, but traditionally, that’s not the case. Florida bball was nothing prior to Donovan, and they will be nothing after Donovan. Ohio State has done it well recetnly, too, but the truth is that they’re a football school. That won’t last, either.
Michigan and UCLA were the only ones that consistently put forth a winning program that competed. In bball, Michigan has disappeared, leaving only UCLA to garner that distinction.
The point is, while we can put both programs at the top, we really don’t care about football. That’s how the UCLA administration sees it.
This is the inside information I received when the KD hiring went down. When Dan Guererro arrived to clean up Peter Dalis’s TERRIBLE work, he had a decision to make. He had to address bball first. As much as it hurts me to write it, we’re a bball school. I love bball, I go to all the bball games, but there’s something about football that’s just more appealing, more enjoyable. The word is that then Chancellor Carnesale, one of the biggest egg-head Chancellor’s we’ve EVER had, kept pushing forward the issue of academics. I’m all for Academics, it is, after all, why we all went to UCLA, but Carnesale took it to an extreme. There was a constant tug and pull with DG. Guererro picked Dorrell knowing that he was likely going to have a fight on his hands for the bball hiring. Carnesale instantly loved Dorrell. The idea of having a former player and one that excelled in the classroom while at UCLA, was too much for Carnesale to pass up. Dorrell quickly became Carnesale’s guy. Rather than fight him on this issue, Dan agreed, becaude he wanted to save a confrontation for the bball hiring. The first name that was contacted was Roy Williams. Roy took our phone call and entertained the conversation, but Carolina moved LIGHTENING quick to cancel all of that. They made an immediate push for Roy Williams and that was it. The next phone call Dan Guererro made was to Mike Montgomery, who initially expressed tangential interest in the job while he was at STanford and Harrick was fired. Montgomery told Dan that he wasn’t interested in the job any more, but that UCLA should contact Ben Howland, a person whom Montgomery felt was perfect for the job. Howland was the third name on the list anyway, so it all worked out to our benefit.
The point is this; we HAD to address bball first. For obvious reasons of tradition, bball had to be addressed first. For reasons of appeasement, DG had to hire Dorrell, but Dorrell was NOT his guy. This is all coming from a source at the Athletic Department who worked there during the transition from DAlis to Guererro.
I’m fine with that. I UNDERSTAND THAT!! It makes sense, but now it’s time to ADDRESS FOOTBALL! Now it’s time to address the money maker, the high-profile part of the athletic program. Now is the time to ENSURE we are going to be the only school that puts forth a national title contender in bball and football every single year!
I want the same type of aggressiveness in calling big name coaches that was displayed for bball to happen for football.
I trust Guererro.
whp '68 @ 10:15 am:
“DD”, since you’re not up to doing stats today (although you seem to have done a good job), here are some interesting factoids courtesy of Robert Kuwada in today’s (Friday, October 19th) Orange County Register:
(1) Bruin offense scored 16 touchdowns (tied for 9th in the PAC-10)
(2) Quarterbacks have completed 50.3% of their passes (9th in the PAC-10)
(3) Quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions (8th in the PAC-10)
(4) Offense has allowed 8.5 tackles for a loss per game (last in the PAC-10 and 114th in the nation)
(5) They have turned over the ball 18 times (9th in the PAC-10 and 102nd in the nation)
(6) They have been penalized 50 times, or 8.3 times per game (tied with USC, most in the PAC-10 and 104th in the nation)
(7) The offense has been penalized 30 times of the 50
(8) 24 of those have been 5-yarders, false starts, illegal substitutions, delays of game, illegal shifts, etc.
(9) The offense had 60 drives that didn’t end in a score of the end of a half or game (i.e., they had to punt or give the ball away)
(10) 47 of the 60 drives (78%) failed to generate more than one first down
(11) 44 of the 60 drives (73%) consisted of 5 plays or fewer
(12) 38 of the 60 drives (63%) gained 20 or fewer yards
The last three stats are stunners. That means that the vaunted Bruin offense is around 4-in-10 of going three-and-out. I guess this points out the fact that the offense is definitely a basket case. In another post, someone pointed out that Dorrell hired/fired 4 offensive coaches and line coaches during over his tenure. Inasmuch there has been this great turnover, Dorrell is the only constant “adding” himself to the offensive staff as he is fond of saying. Arguably, he is the only constant (”K” factor?) in the equation and therefore must shoulder the responsibility for this performance.
DumpDorrell @ 11:25 am:
whp … thanks for the post. Those numbers are incredible. 78% of our drives didnt generate more than a single first down??!! Holy cow. We’ve always known Dorrell is a horrible offensive coach, but Training Jay is everything he was said to be at Nebraska. He is just another UCLA football coach in training, and doing a horrible job at learning. Thanks again.
TommyBruin @ 12:57 pm:
DUH-rell is such a clown. Cal will kill us this week. If he can fuck up games against Utah and Notre Dame, imagine what he can do when we’re playing real opponents. This game should be HUGE, generating all kinds of interest, instead it’s generating about as much excitement as a mouse fart, and deservedly so. I don’t understand why somebody can’t pull their head out and fire this village idiot.
dana @ 2:01 pm:
Lawrence,
The Nebraska AD did more than just hire a bad coach. He also alienated his entire department, where very important people like fundraisers were leaving. Until DG starts doing that, I don’t think he’d get fired for KD.
whp '68 @ 3:28 pm:
..again, the credit goes to UCLA beat writer fr the OC Register. But they are an astounding encapsulation of how inept the offense’s efforts have been this year. Of course, we always point out, this is not a bag on the kids. They are trying their best, laboring under tutelage that must be at once confusing and frustrating.
I had posted a reference to the Bruin’s SID touting of the class of 2005 whcih was a major haul of talent. Clearly, Dorrell has squandered these riches.
I felt sorry for the kids playing under Lavin; their after-college prospects were decidedly dimmer at his hands. Dorrell is actually diminishing the pro prospects of his players by this mismanagement.